portugal – Page 2 – sixhat.net

Euro 2012: Diagrama de possibilidades de Portugal passar aos quartos de final

Com a vitória de Portugal sobre a Dinamarca e da Alemanha à Holanda, o Grupo B está ainda longe de estar decidido! Com dois jogos para jogar há 9 combinações de resultados possíveis. Nem todos garantem a passagem de Portugal aos quartos de final e nem a vitória é garantia de passar.

Dos 9 resultados possíveis:

4 dão passagem de Portugal aos quartos de final do Euro 2012: Alemanha não perde e Portugal não perde.
3 resultados eliminam imediatamente Portugal da competição: A Alemanha empata e Portugal perde. A Alemanha perde e Portugal não ganha.
Os outros 2 resultados vão depender primeiro da diferença de golos e depois dos golos marcados, primeiro entre os empatados em pontos e segundo entre todos.

Se ainda assim houver empate então o desempate é feito pelo Ranking da equipa, pelo fairplay ou eventualmente por sorteio.

A vitória sobre a Dinamarca coloca Portugal no bom caminho, mas este é ainda muito tortuoso e sempre agarrado à máquina de calcular (como bons Portugueses que somos).

Euro 2012: Portugal – Dinamarca – Hoje é dia de tudo ou nada

As hipóteses não parecem boas, o adversário joga como equipa, e marca golos (coisa que nós parecemos não saber fazer), mas já imaginaram o que teria acontecido se no David contra Golias, o Golias tivesse ganho?

Considero que Portugal não tem a equipa que a imprensa e 90% dos portugueses acredita que tem. Há lá dois ou três grandes jogadores, mas o resto é no mínimo sofrível, e os adversários tiram proveito disso.

A Dinamarca como equipa é muito mais forte que Portugal, como equipa. Agora de vez em quando é possível fazer surpresas.

Prevendo os resultados do Euro 2012

O Euro 2012 está aí em força e naturalmente todo o mundo revolve em torno do que se passa na Polónia / Ucránia. Assim dediquei-me a fazer uma estatísticas e a procurar encontrar um modelo para prever os resultados dos jogos.

Seguindo a ideia de que os resultados seguem uma distribuíção de Poisson decidi fazer umas previsões dos jogos baseados nas capacidades ofensiva e defensiva das equipas.

A partir das fases de qualificação extraí a média de golos marcados e sofridos por cada equipa. A partir destes, para cada jogo A-B calculei a uma medida da força de cada equipa:

fA = golos marcados pela equipa A + golos sofridos pela equipa B

fB = golos marcados pela equipa B + golos sofridos pela equipa A

Utilizando este valores de fA e fB nas distribuições de Poisson simulei 100 resultados possíveis, desde o 0-0 até ao 9-9 e depois somei as probabilidades de vitórias da equipa A, empate e vitórias da equipa B para chegar a uma estimativa dos resultados finais.

Assim para hoje os resultados esperados são

Netherlands – 66.61% – 12.38% – 19.36% -Denmark

Germany – 59.71% – 12.65% – 24.87% – Portugal

#pl118 – Updated Statistics on the Portuguse Copy Levy discussion

#pl118 Tweet Count

After almost 22 days of fight against the #pl118 it’s time to update some statistics. First, we have the daily tweet count of the #pl118 hashtag on twitter. It’s interesting to notice that it seems to show a 10 day cycle, although this can’t be taken as strong evidence of anything as more data points are needed.

#p118 tweets by hour of day

Second we can see the daily distribution of tweets about the #pl118 copy levy that the government is trying to pass. As natural, discussion follows the circadian rhythm of Portugal with almost no tweets during the 3am-7am period. If you’re interested in participating in this vivid discussion, the best time of day is between 17h and 20h and between 22h and 24h. It’s also curious to notice the bump around lunch time when people seem to use their break to tweet their opinions on the #pl118.

#pl118 Tweets detail by hour of day

This final stat show’s the above two plots condensed into a single image. You can see how the tweets on the #pl118 stack up by hour. You can see that they are pretty much stacked in hour groups probably reflecting moments of strong discussion when new information is available and then rapidly fading away.

Note: Data for Jan 29 was only available up until around 8am.

#sopa, #pl118 and #pipa half baked stories…

It looks like SOPA has been put to sleep for while, but that doesn’t mean much when there’s also PIPA (Where do they get these names?). PIPA is not as known as SOPA but basically does the same thing, allowing DNS censorship.

Around the burg the #pl118 is a bit dormant and most of the online traffic as been from retweets of scattered texts. Although there’s many users online (according to some sources Twitter gains 11 new accounts per second), there are lots of trolls and hashtag surfers.

I’m working now on a “social graph” of the #pl118 tag and the main results show a strong hierarchical structure of the network with this theme being highly centralized in very few individuals. Remove those nodes and probably the meme is gone. New individuals need to join the fight against #pl118 to make the conversation more sustained and robust.

(The above pic is from the #pl118 graph. It’s not complete, so in the next few days I’ll maybe have a more details.)

#pl118 – Is it loosing steam? Some stats on the portuguese copy levy.

The Portuguese private copy levy is still going strong on social networks, but now the discussion seems to have lost a bit of steam. Maybe because the mainstream media hasn’t really picked it up (why?) except for some sporadic entries. In any case it is necessary to keep it strong as the proposal is totally absurd.

Most active users discussing the #pl118

jonasnuts : 412 RuiSeabra : 356 jmcest : 223 ncruz77 : 208 super_nortenho: 173 streetfiteri : 172 paulasimoes : 168 DiogoCMoreira : 160 ZW3I : 122 (Other) :2698

Most used clients to post about the #pl118

web :1617 TweetDeck :1280 HootSuite : 404 Twitter for Mac : 308 Twitter for iPhone : 109 Twitter for iPad : 106 Tweet Button : 103 Echofon : 90 Seesmic : 79 (Other) : 596

(Note: Data for Jan 14th not final, updated the lists to include a few more users and clients.)

Portugal Bailout: Why are we being rescued?

The Portuguese bailout seems to be doomed to fail… and obviously the why question is not easy to answer. The certainty of this fate is not to be doubted as loan rates of 6% are not saving anyone.

Loan by nature demands a trust relation between the two parts.

The question then is… IMF and the EU by lending money to Portugal are doing one of two:

It is necessary to keep european cohesion and its member states economies healthy!

Why are only speculators profiting from Portugal and why can’t we profit also?

Now, knowing that the European Central Bank interest rate is at 1,5% I do think that the EU and the IMF are not really interested in question 1.

If they think Portugal needs an healthy economy and really think we are trustworthy to receive the loan, then the interest rate should be lower. On the other hand by putting the bar at almost 6% they are cutting every possibility of repaying these loans with growth.

6% means this loan as to have such a return of investment to be fully paid. If you connect this with the fact that Portugal is now going to enter a recession and loose at least 2% of GDP during next year… I’m really convinced that the EU and IMF are just taking care of their business and saying “we can be vultures too”.

This looks like a medieval executioner asking his victim if he wants his head shopped off with an axe or with a butter knife. Portugal chose the latter and now is electing a new government to help grease our necks.

With all this a default of the debt will be necessary, not because we need it or want it, but because IMF and the EU said so in the protection of their interest rates.

Questão sobre os chips automóveis.

Será que os políticos da oposição já perceberam que a partir do momento da aplicação dos chips, alguém no Ministério da Administração Interna vai saber em tempo real onde é que os deputados da oposição estão a dar as suas escapadelas (não acreditem no anonimato ou na santidade de quem vive no Terreiro do Paço) e que isso vai ser utilizado politicamente no bacanal que são os debates deste PM?

Just saying…